Nigeria has reaffirmed its determination to ramp up crude oil production to 2 million barrels per day (mbpd), even as global supply concerns intensify due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, praised the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) for raising production to 1.84mbpd in recent days, describing it as a strong step toward meeting the government’s ambitious target. However, he urged the commission to accelerate efforts to reach the 2mbpd benchmark.
Edun made the remarks during a meeting with NUPRC Chief Executive, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, at the Ministry’s headquarters in Abuja. He emphasized that sustaining production growth is just as critical as achieving it, stressing that Nigeria must maintain momentum without setbacks.
The renewed push comes at a time of heightened uncertainty in the global oil market. JP Morgan has warned that crude prices could soar above $150 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist into mid-May. The strategic waterway, a vital artery for global oil shipments, has been effectively shut since late February due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
The crisis has already driven oil prices close to $120 per barrel, marking a four-year high and triggering increased fuel costs worldwide. Consumers and businesses are feeling the strain, prompting governments to adopt measures to manage limited supplies.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has agreed to increase output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May. However, analysts say the move will have minimal real impact, as key producers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq are grappling with reduced capacity caused by the conflict and infrastructure damage.
Energy experts note that the planned increase represents less than two percent of the supply lost due to the Hormuz disruption, which has removed an estimated 12 to 15 million barrels per day—about 15 percent of global supply—from the market.
NUPRC boss Eyesan expressed confidence that Nigeria will continue to improve production levels. She attributed earlier declines in February to maintenance work and operational setbacks but confirmed that those issues have now been resolved.
Looking ahead, Eyesan highlighted progress in the 2025 licensing round, currently in its technical and financial evaluation stage. She also pointed to the “drill or drop” provision in the Petroleum Industry Act as a key driver for sector growth, enabling authorities to reclaim unused oil blocks.
According to her, some newly offered acreages could begin production within a year, with indigenous companies demonstrating increasing operational capacity.
She further disclosed that the commission has fully implemented Executive Order 9 of 2026, which suspends the 30 percent Frontier Exploration Fund deduction and mandates direct remittance of revenues to the Federation Account.
As geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global energy dynamics, Nigeria’s renewed production drive positions it to potentially benefit from higher oil prices—if it can meet and sustain its output goals.
