The Federal Government, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), has begun efforts to secure crude oil supply for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery through international third-party traders in a move aimed at sustaining domestic refining operations.
However, industry officials warn that the intervention may not immediately lead to lower petrol prices for consumers, as Nigerians continue to grapple with rising fuel costs across the country.
Oil marketers and industry stakeholders confirmed that the refinery recently suspended the loading of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) temporarily, fueling speculation that another petrol price increase could be on the horizon.
The development follows recent price adjustments that pushed gantry prices from N774 to about N995 per litre, with retail pump prices in several states now exceeding N1,000 per litre, and in some areas climbing to around N1,200 per litre.
Analysts attribute part of the pressure on fuel prices to rising global crude oil prices triggered by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing crisis involving Iran and the United States.
The tensions have disrupted supply chains and pushed Brent crude prices above $92 per barrel, while instability around the strategic Strait of Hormuz — a key global oil transit route — has further tightened supply.
Officials from NNPC and the Dangote refinery confirmed that the national oil company is leveraging its global trading network to source crude at competitive international rates.
“Leveraging our global crude trading network, we are sourcing third-party crude for the refinery at prices that are competitive with prevailing international market rates,” a senior NNPC official said.
The official added that the company remains committed to supporting domestic refining despite temporary crude availability challenges.
Despite Nigeria being Africa’s largest oil producer, domestic crude allocations to the refinery have remained below requirements.
The Dangote refinery currently receives about five cargoes of crude monthly from NNPC, far below the 13 cargoes required under the naira-for-crude policy.
A refinery source explained that the shortfall forces the facility to rely heavily on imported crude purchased at international market rates.
“While we receive about five cargoes monthly from NNPC paid in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market rates plus premium and fall short of the volumes needed to support sales in Nigeria,” the source said.
Recent data indicates that Nigeria’s reliance on imported crude has increased significantly.
According to Kpler analytics, crude imports from the United States surged to 41.13 million barrels in 2025, representing a 161 per cent increase from 15.79 million barrels in 2024.
In July 2025 alone, the Dangote refinery imported about 590,000 barrels per day, with 60 per cent coming from US light sweet crude and 40 per cent from Nigerian grades.
Energy analysts say this trend highlights a paradox in the country’s oil industry — Africa’s largest oil producer increasingly depending on foreign crude to feed domestic refineries.
Market Competition and Policy Concerns
Industry players have also raised concerns about limited fuel import licences granted to marketers.
Jeremiah Olatide, CEO of Petroleumprice.ng, said nearly 90 per cent of marketers seeking petrol import permits were denied approvals, a move aimed at promoting local refining capacity.
He suggested that a balanced approach between local refining and controlled imports would improve energy security and stabilise fuel prices.
“Imports should not exceed about 20 to 25 per cent of total supply, while the rest is refined locally. That balance would strengthen the economy and improve energy security,” he said.
Despite rising costs, analysts say the presence of the Dangote refinery has helped moderate fuel price spikes in Nigeria.
“Given the crises across the global energy market, the Dangote refinery has prevented petrol prices from rising even higher. Without it, prices could easily have reached about N1,500 per litre,” Olatide added.
Meanwhile, the refinery has expanded its network of petroleum marketers and distribution partners to ensure wider supply coverage.
Companies such as NIPCO Plc, MRS Oil Nigeria Plc, TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc and Conoil Plc are among more than 30 approved marketers authorised to lift petrol from the facility.
Industry observers say the combined effects of global geopolitical tensions, domestic supply gaps and regulatory policies continue to shape Nigeria’s fuel market, leaving consumers bracing for further economic pressure.
