Experts Back IMF Warning, Urge Nigeria to Stay the Course on Reforms Ahead of Elections

Economic experts have thrown their weight behind the International Monetary Fund’s cautionary stance on Nigeria’s reform agenda, urging the Federal Government to sustain ongoing reforms and resist policy reversals as political pressures intensify ahead of the election cycle.
They warned that abandoning or diluting reforms could erode recent gains in inflation moderation, weaken investor confidence and further expose the economy, which remains fragile due to limited fiscal buffers.
The IMF’s Country Representative for Nigeria, Dr Christian Ebeke, sounded the warning during a panel discussion at the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook event organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) in Lagos. He cautioned that reversing recent reforms would undermine the hard-won macroeconomic stability achieved so far.
While acknowledging progress, Ebeke stressed that Nigeria’s reform journey was far from complete, noting that inflation remains in double digits, leaving little room for policy complacency.
“Government intervention in controlling prices and volumes is no longer sustainable for Nigeria. The objective going forward must be to stay the course on both fiscal and monetary policy,” he said.
Ebeke identified complacency as a major risk, particularly at the subnational level, where states now enjoy increased fiscal space following recent reforms. He warned that pre-election-year spending pressures could trigger pro-cyclical fiscal behaviour capable of reversing gains recorded by the Federal Government and economic managers.
“The risk of believing that the job is already done is more evident at the subnational level. Fiscal space has increased significantly for states, and in a pre-election year, pro-cyclical fiscal policy becomes a very acute risk,” he said.
He also cautioned against what he described as “home-grown volatility” driven by policy missteps, warning that a return to exchange rate controls would be disastrous.
“A return to exchange rate controls would deplete reserves, distort market signals and negatively affect market confidence,” Ebeke said, adding that Nigeria must carefully navigate difficult policy trade-offs to preserve macroeconomic stability.
Echoing the IMF’s concerns, NESG Chairman, Niyi Yusuf, warned that Nigeria must not abandon the reform process midway or risk ending up in a worse economic position.
He noted that while the economy has moved away from acute macroeconomic dislocation towards a more predictable environment, stability alone does not translate into prosperity.
“Growth remains modest and uneven, driven by a narrow set of sectors with weak transmission to employment and household incomes,” Yusuf said, stressing that consolidation is required to convert stability into inclusive and sustainable growth.
According to him, the consolidation phase must focus on policy coherence, institutional strengthening and removing structural bottlenecks that constrain productivity, investment and competitiveness.
Investment banker and economist, Tilewa Adebajo, also described the IMF’s concerns as valid, warning that political considerations pose a major threat to reform continuity.
“After two very difficult years of reforms, reform reversal is something we must be very careful about because of politics,” he said, adding that although inflation is easing, Nigeria urgently needs a clear growth strategy.
Adebajo argued that sustainable economic growth of between 8 and 10 per cent, coupled with lower inflation, is necessary to restore purchasing power and economic stability. He stressed that the growth push must be private sector-driven, given the government’s limited capacity to fund capital expenditure.
“If we compromise reforms for politics, getting back on the path of sustainability will become increasingly difficult,” he warned, noting that falling oil prices could further strain Nigeria’s weak external buffers.
However, a former President of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, Okechukwu Unegbu, downplayed concerns about reform reversal, expressing confidence in the current economic managers.
He said the Central Bank Governor, Yemi Cardoso, and the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, are committed reformists who would not allow election-year pressures to derail ongoing reforms.
“We should rather encourage them to continue their jobs,” Unegbu said, adding that both officials have demonstrated resolve and competence since assuming office.
As Nigeria approaches another election cycle, analysts agree that sustaining reform momentum remains critical to safeguarding macroeconomic stability and laying the foundation for long-term, inclusive growth.