Indication has emerged on the possibility that the Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki is most likely not to be given the governorship ticket of the main opposition party ahead of the election in the state.
This follows a disclosure made by the National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Prince Uche Secondus. Secondus stated that the PDP will welcome Governor Obaseki into the party if he chooses to join. But Secondus refused to state categorically that the PDP would give Obaseki its governorship ticket. The PDP Chairman said that he was not competent to speak on the issue. Rather, Secondus said that only the members of the party would choose who their governorship candidate will be.
Speaking further, Secondus condemned the manner Obaseki was treated by the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC which culminated in his disqualification from contesting in the party’s primary election. The PDP Chairman said that Obaseki is an incumbent Governor and should not have been treated that way. He queried why Obaseki was qualified to contest the election earlier in 2016 in the same party which he won. But all of a sudden, the same Obaseki who is a sitting APC Governor is no longer qualified to contest for his party’s ticket. Secondus asked what had changed between then and now?
This clarification by Secondus is timely as it came when insinuations are rife that following his disqualification by the APC, Obaseki will most likely join the main opposition PDP and get the party’s governorship ticket. With that, Obaseki will put up a bold challenge to whoever emerges the APC candidate. Although Obaseki has not made his next move known, but there are speculations that he would have made some underground moves to seal a deal with the PDP to get the party’s ticket. In fact, some people are of the opinion that Obaseki knew that he would most likely be disqualified going by statements he made after his screening. Another reason is Obaseki’s clash with the National Chairman of the APC, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole whom the Governor accused of refusing to stay away from the process and being a judge in a matter he is personally interested in.
What is the possibility of Obaseki winning the governorship ticket of the PDP if he eventually chooses to join the party? Well, Obaseki has not joined the PDP up till now. The main election is just three months away. To be specific, the main election is on September 19, 2020 barring any changes. The Edo APC has done its screening and its primary is on June 22. It means that the PDP will conduct its primary soon so that it would have enough time to do its campaign ahead of the main election. It means that Obaseki does not have enough time to defect to the PDP and make much impact to change the course of things. Although, his status and the resources he can bring in can work wonders. Moreover, the calibre of politicians and number of people Obaseki may bring along while defecting to the PDP may help his cause to secure the PDP’s ticket. But, he does not have enough time to waste. Also, the PDP is running out of time to make a decision on who will be its governorship candidate.
Again, the disclosure by PDP’s National Chairman, Secondus reveals another problem for Obaseki if he chooses join PDP. Secondus had said that the PDP members would chose who will be their governorship candidate in the election. Secondus also refused to say if the PDP will give Obaseki its ticket should the Governor join the party following his disqualification by the APC. In view of this, if Obaseki joins the PDP, he would be joining the party probably weeks to its primary election.
Clearly, most of the politicking and convincing needed to be done would have taken place by then. Moreover, even if Obaseki is granted a waiver to contest in the primary, most of his loyalists he would defect with may be ineligible to vote in the primary election. Also, PDP member would see him as a big fish who is only coming to take advantage of the party’s ticket to realize his second term ambition of winning the post of the Edo governor. They would believe that that’s all he wants and nothing more. So, that may affect his chances of winning the PDP’s ticket.
Additionally, the PDP has decided to use indirect primary method. This presents a big threat and slim opportunity for Obaseki if he chooses to join the party. The indirect primary method is a threat to Obaseki because block votes emerge from this arrangement. If the card carrying members of the PDP who will serve as delegates in the indirect election decide to vote for a long time loyal party man to emerge as the flagbearer of the party, then it is finished! In fact, this is more likely to happen because they would not want to disappoint a loyal and trusted PDP aspirant(s) for a staunch APC late defector who only wants to use the party to realize second term ambition after falling out with his party. On the other hand, based on Obaseki’s high profile, political following and financial war chest, the party leadership and the delegates may choose to give the block votes to Obaseki. After that, they would find a political solution to calm the other aspirants who have been in the party all along. In this case, the indirect primary would prove to be a good opportunity for Obaeki which may be very hard if direct primary is to be used.
In all, Obaseki has to make a decision fast. Will he join the PDP now and start the process of seeking to get the party’s ticket? Or will he find other ways of reversing his disqualification by the APC to still contest the party’s primary? This will include exploring legal options through the court. Which one will work for Obaseki? Well, his supporters expect that he would make a decision soon and give them direction on what next to do. The decision Obaseki takes now and how fast and wise it is, will no doubt determine his chances in realizing his second term bid amid hurdles and oppositions on his way.
