Nigeria’s fragile national electricity grid suffered another major failure on January 27, collapsing twice within four days and plunging millions of homes and businesses into darkness, once again highlighting the deep-rooted dysfunction in the country’s power sector.
Power generation reportedly crashed from about 3,825 megawatts (MW) to a meagre 39MW within minutes. Eko Electricity Distribution Company confirmed the outage, while the Nigerian Independent System Operator described the incident as a “system-wide disturbance” that resulted in a total blackout across the interconnected network.
The latest collapse was the third in less than one month, following similar incidents on December 29, 2025, and January 23, underscoring the growing instability of the national grid.
Grid failures have become almost routine in Nigeria’s electricity sector. Data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) show that between 2010 and 2022, the country recorded at least 222 partial and total grid collapses. Reports indicate that another 12 incidents occurred across 2024 and 2025.
For Nigerians, the impact is devastating. Businesses struggle to operate, productivity is lost, and households are forced to rely on noisy, expensive and polluting generators just to meet basic energy needs.
Ironically, electricity was first generated in Nigeria in 1896. More than 130 years later, Africa’s most populous nation continues to battle chronic power shortages.
Although Nigeria boasts an installed generation capacity of about 13,000MW, the ageing transmission network can barely evacuate 5,000MW. Any additional load often triggers system instability and nationwide collapse.
Analysts say the causes of Nigeria’s power crisis are well known. Ageing infrastructure—some of it more than five decades old—has not been replaced. The grid repeatedly suffers frequency imbalances whenever supply and demand drift outside the safe 49.5–50.5Hz range. Gas shortages routinely cripple gas-fired power plants, while sabotage of transmission lines, including the recent 330kV Shiroro–Mando incident, persists with little consequence.
Nigeria’s grid also lacks spinning reserves needed for rapid response to outages, while electricity distribution companies (DisCos) frequently reject load allocations due to the poor condition of their own networks.
Generation companies (GenCos) blame a crippling liquidity crisis. As of 2024, the Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company (NBET) reportedly owed GenCos about ₦4 trillion, with an additional ₦762 billion outstanding by mid-2025. With limited funds for maintenance and gas supply, GenCos say frequent plant trips are unavoidable, often triggering nationwide blackouts.
Although the Federal Government raised ₦501 billion through bonds to offset part of the debt, liabilities continue to mount, entrenching systemic failure.
Aggregate Technical, Commercial and Collection (ATC&C) losses—driven by ageing infrastructure, electricity theft, poor billing and weak payment compliance—were estimated at $1 billion in 2024. More than ₦200 billion was reportedly lost in the first quarter of 2025 alone, with NERC estimating sector-wide losses at around 50 per cent.
Successive governments have failed to prioritise electricity as a foundation for industrialisation and economic growth. The 2013 power sector privatisation, which promised efficiency and private investment, has largely delivered higher tariffs, weak regulation and persistent outages.
Critics argue that many DisCos and GenCos acquired licences without the financial capacity or technical competence to transform the sector, focusing instead on revenue collection rather than infrastructure investment. Consumers now bear the burden through inflated bills and opaque tariff structures designed to mask inefficiencies.
Since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, citizens have endured between 190 and 240 days of power outages every year.
Billions of dollars spent on the sector have produced little to show. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s reported $12–$16 billion investment in power between 1999 and 2007 delivered power plants without gas supply. The long-delayed 3,050MW Mambilla Hydropower Project remains stalled amid corruption scandals.
The Buhari administration’s Siemens-led grid revamp failed to deliver meaningful results, while the Tinubu administration has so far struggled to convert reforms into tangible outcomes. Even the 624MW Abuja power project, reportedly 91 per cent complete, remains stalled over right-of-way disputes.
Meanwhile, the Federal Government’s ₦10 billion Aso Rock solar project guarantees uninterrupted power for the Presidency, highlighting a stark contrast with the reality faced by ordinary Nigerians.
The economic toll is enormous. Nigeria’s per capita electricity consumption stands at just 144kWh annually—among the lowest globally—compared with Egypt’s 1,700kWh and South Africa’s 3,800kWh.
Manufacturers lose an estimated ₦10.1 trillion annually due to poor electricity supply, while major firms such as Dangote Industries, MTN and Nigerian Breweries have exited the national grid entirely, installing costly captive power plants.
Experts warn that Nigeria’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030 will remain unrealistic without reliable and affordable electricity. The World Bank estimates that power outages cost the country about $29 billion annually, roughly 10 per cent of GDP.
The decentralisation of electricity generation and regulation under the 2023 Electricity Act offers a potential pathway out of the crisis. Several states, including Lagos, Enugu, Oyo and Edo, have already established electricity regulators.
Projects such as Aba Power’s 141MW gas-fired plant in Abia State demonstrate how decentralised, state-backed solutions can deliver stable electricity to industrial hubs.
Analysts argue that Nigeria must urgently decentralise the national grid into regional clusters, deploy smart technologies to isolate faults, enforce accountability among operators and close the metering gap.
Without decisive action, Nigeria risks another decade of darkness while the rest of the world moves forward.
